Biden insists he's staying in the race

State of the Race - July 8

Jul 08, 2024

Vibes Check: I’ll try not to belabor the point, but I still think the Democrats’ best course of action is to do whatever they can to convince Biden to drop out of the race. A lot can change in a week, but as of now, Biden is daring Democrats to fight him at the convention for the nomination, and congressional members in his party are currently split on the next course of action. It’s ugly right now, and it’s likely to get much uglier before it’s all said and done.

As you’ll see below, Biden’s national poll numbers have slid downward since his horrific debate performance, and he’s lost ground in Pennsylvania, one of three essential Blue Wall1 states he needs to win the election. The five election forecasts (below) are also showing a decline in Biden’s chances at a second term in the White House, and they’re likely to get worse if Biden doesn’t make up significant ground in the seven key swing states. It’s clear to me he no longer has the stamina or ability to campaign effectively, and while it breaks my heart on a personal level, I believe he’s being selfish. It’s also hard to take high-ranking Democratic officials seriously when they claim that democracy is on the ballot and the most important thing is to defeat Trump in November while refusing to stand up to the president and make him go out there and campaign2 or ask him to leave the race.

Biden’s big bet was that an early debate with Trump would boost his numbers and kickstart his campaign. It made sense at the time: he was behind (if ever so slightly) in national and battleground polls, and he needed to pick up another three points or so to pull ahead. The plan backfired, and depending on which pollster or aggregator you trust most, he’s either in the same position he was before the debate (or, more likely) down another point or two. He’s headed in the wrong direction, and only a drastic change in strategy will give the Democrats a fighting chance at beating Trump. Let me be clear that Biden can still win. He has about the same odds Donald Trump had in 2016 to beat Hillary Clinton. I would be more than happy to be wrong. But it’s not a bet I’d make. And the clock is ticking.

We’re living in a historical political moment that’ll be remembered along with 1968.

Forecasts and Polls

Presidential Forecasts (who is favored to win) as of July 8:

National Polling Averages as of July 8:

Battleground Polling Averages as of July 8:

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